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CommercialEdge: Office Market Sales Decline and Vacancies Continue to Rise

Originally published on March 6, 2023, by Eliza Theiss for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Three years after the COVID-19 pandemic upended the office sector, it remains in flux. While many businesses have fully committed to hybrid and remote work arrangements, others are becoming more adamant about getting employees back into the office. And, according to the CommercialEdge U.S. office market analysis, there will be even greater uncertainty and upheaval as the industry transitions to a new status quo.

In 2023, higher interest rates are anticipated to negatively affect both the new supply pipeline and transactional activity; while some buildings will be constructed in desirable sites, many other projects will be postponed or abandoned entirely. Moreover, in addition to fewer office transactions, higher rates will also result in reduced property prices for those that do trade.

At the same time, tenants’ flight to quality is also expected to continue in 2023. Businesses that want workers in the office more frequently are looking for high-quality amenitized space to tempt workers to come in, which can mean embracing smaller footprints in prime locations.

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What’s Working for the Workplace

Originally published on February 27, 2023, by Janet Pogue McLaurin AIA, FIIDA, NCIDQ , LEED AP for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Office workers around the globe scrambled to suddenly work from home in March 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the global pandemic raged from weeks to months to years, we adapted to virtual meetings and new ways of working. It fundamentally changed how we work and our expectations of the office. Over a period of time, Gensler surveyed 2,000 U.S. workers as they were returning to the office to understand the new role of the office, what’s working and not, and what’s missing in the work experience.

The Role of the Office has Shifted

Throughout the pandemic, we conducted 11 workplace research surveys — six alone in the U.S. — to capture how the pandemic has shaped the workplace experience. During this time, the top-ranked reason cited by employees to return to the office was “working in-person with my team/colleagues” — consistent across countries, generations, and industries. In our latest research, “to focus on my work” emerged as the top-ranked reason workers say they are coming into the office. Work activities based in the physical space, such as access to technology, scheduled meetings, and access to specific spaces, materials, and resources, also rise to the top.

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NAIOP Insights: Key Considerations for Adaptive Reuse Projects

Originally published on February 16, 2023, by NAIOP.

From pricing to building codes to zoning and beyond, developers embarking on an adaptive reuse project must consider key factors that can make or break its success.

Steve Smith, principal with Cooper Carry, explores the importance of location, authenticity of a building, and the important return on investment that make adaptive reuse projects successful.

This NAIOP Insight was filmed at CRE.Converge 2022.

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Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Top Priority for Local Governments

Originally published on February 15, 2023, by Toby Burke for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Cities and counties are increasingly adopting local ordinances that are intended to spur the electrification of our transportation system in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuels. A survey by The U.S. Conference of Mayors identified electric vehicles (EVs) “as the most promising technology for reducing energy use and carbon emissions in their cities.” Local efforts to support the use of EVs by both the public and private sectors will require the development and expansion of a reliable and sustainable EV charging system.

Efforts by mayors and local governments to transform the nation’s transportation system from fossil-fueled vehicles to electric ones has been boosted by the federal government and the private automobile industry. Both the Biden Administration and major U.S. carmakers – Ford, General Motors and Stellantis (Chrysler) – have set aspirational goals for EVs to account for 50% of all vehicle sales by 2030. These aspirational goals reflect growing consumer interest for electric vehicles that will further accelerate the demand for a sustainable EV charging network across the United States.

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NAIOP Insight: Industrial Development Near Residential Areas

Originally published on February 9, 2023, by NAIOP.

E-commerce facilities located near residential communities enable faster delivery and access to the workforce who will help companies expand. Explore how developers are working with communities to find creative solutions to their concerns and position these facilities for success.

NAIOP Insight by: Brian Quigley, Executive Vice President, Conor Commercial Real Estate

This NAIOP Insight was filmed at CRE.Converge 2022.

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When and Why to Consider Underground Detention

Originally published on February 8, 2023, by Chris Strawn and Tom Jansen for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Stormwater management considerations are a vital part of the site selection and development process – and can impact the long-term value of a property. In fact, the majority of land development projects over one acre require a stormwater management system so it’s important to understand the available options as well as their pros and cons.

Stormwater management is traditionally executed on the surface with a pond that controls how much water can be released typically at or below historic flow rates. One alternative is to create an underground detention system. It is most often used in developments where land availability, parcel limitations and land costs do not allow the development of surface stormwater Best Management Practices (BMPs).

It’s important to consider when and why it is appropriate to implement underground vs. above-ground solutions to maximize the long-term real estate value of properties.

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[Watch] How CRE Benefits the U.S. Economy

Originally published on February 6, 2023, by NAIOP.

The four phases of commercial real estate development yield significant contributions to the U.S. economy, creating jobs and building the places we work, shop, live and play. In 2022, combined economic contributions of new commercial building development and the operations of existing commercial buildings:

  • Contributed $2.3 trillion to U.S. GDP
  • Generated $831.8 billion in personal earnings
  • Supported a total of 15.1 million jobs

Each dollar of construction spending generates $2.89 in economic, reflecting the cumulative effects of the initial construction expenditures as they cycle throughout the economy. Construction spending of $1.8 trillion yields $5.2 trillion to U.S. GDP.

State economies benefit from a healthy commercial real estate industry, which yields state revenue and adds inventory to attract new businesses and jobs.

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Global Economic Implications for the China Slowdown

Originally published on February 3, 2023, by Brielle Scott for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Painting a picture of the current global economic climate is a complex venture, but Reva Goujon, director at Rhodium Group, leveraged her vast geopolitical expertise to do so at NAIOP’s Chapter Leadership and Legislative Retreat this week in Washington, D.C.

“First – catch your breath!” Goujon said at the start of her remarks, pointing out that 2022 created a cocktail of inflationary drivers, including:

  • The land war in Europe, which caused a surge in food and energy prices.
  • Tightening monetary policy (“How is the Fed going to land this plane?” she asked).
  • A still-tight labor market (“There are nearly twice as many job openings as eligible workers,” Goujon noted).
  • The U.S.’s “next-level” financial sanctions against Russia and tech controls against China.
  • China ending its “zero-COVID” policy with a bang, among other factors.
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A Groundbreaking Tool for Advancing and Measuring CRE Supplier Diversity

Originally published on February 2, 2023, by Brielle Scott for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

NAIOP, in conjunction with the Commercial Real Estate Diverse Supplier (CREDS) Consortium, has debuted the commercial real estate industry’s first collaborative supplier diversity initiative, helping to advance member companies’ environmental, social and governance (ESG) objectives. NAIOP chapter leaders from across North America had the opportunity to learn more about the program this week at the Chapter Leadership and Legislative Retreat in Washington, D.C.

“We talk a lot about ESG as an element that guides corporate policies and investing strategies,” said Duane J. Desiderio, senior vice president and counsel for The Real Estate Roundtable, who spoke at the session. He said most companies are familiar with the ”e” in ESG – company policies related to environmental regulations, energy usage, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, etc.

But when it comes to the “s” or social aspect of ESG, “That’s where we heard from our members we needed to get involved,” Desiderio said. “What are the metrics for social impact in a company?”

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The Case for Implementing DEI in Commercial Real Estate

Originally published on January 31, 2023, by Trey Barrineau for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Like many industries, commercial real estate has often struggled to make progress on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI). An interactive session during NAIOP’s Chapter Leadership and Legislative Retreat (CL&LR) in Washington, D.C., in late January explored the “what, why and how” of DEI and how firms in the industry can better implement it.

Rhonda Payne, CAE, the founder and CEO of Flock Theory, opened by discussing personal identity, which Psychology Today defines as “the memories, experiences, relationships and values that create one’s sense of self.” According to Payne, some aspects of each person’s identity are fixed. These include things you were born into, as well as the era in which you exist. Furthermore, there are the choices we make (such as which college to attend or what career to focus on) and the opportunities that are presented to us.

“All these things make up an individual’s identity,” Payne said. “All these contribute to the diversity within a space or team.”

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Vision 2023: Annual Report

Originally published on January 31, 2023, by NAIOP E-Newsletter.

NAIOP is your forward-thinking partner committed to working alongside our members to build your knowledge, advance your career and protect your business.

Watch our 2022 accomplishments and preview what's ahead for the association throughout this year, including the release of new programs, opportunities to connect across the chapter network, and resources that will move our members' businesses forward.

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NAIOP: Commercial Real Estate Vital to the Overall Economy; Industrial Sector Leads, and Retail Stages a Comeback

Originally published on January 26, 2023 by Kathryn Hamilton for NAIOP E-Newsletter. 

The impact of new commercial real estate development in the U.S. continues to grow, according to the annual Economic Impacts of Commercial Real Estate research study conducted by the NAIOP Research Foundation.

The combined economic contributions of new commercial building development and the operations of existing commercial buildings in 2022 resulted in direct expenditures of $826.9 billion and the following impacts on the U.S. economy: 

  • Contributed $2.3 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
  • Generated $831.8 billion in personal earnings.
  • Supported 15.1 million jobs.

Among other highlights:

  • Significant (143.4%) increase in non-warehouse (manufacturing) industrial building construction in 2022, making it the largest segment of new CRE construction in 2022.
  • The four property types covered in the report saw increased construction spending (hard costs) last year (see table).
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Bringing Wellness to the Industrial Workplace

Originally published on January 20, 2023 by Brielle Scott for E-Newsletter.

Wellness in the workplace – it’s a buzzy phrase we hear often in reference to office buildings, but when it comes to the industrial and manufacturing facilities that are ubiquitous to us, what kind of wellness features would we find inside?

Long days, physical labor and often isolated locations can take its toll on the workers at these locations. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there was a 60% turnover rate in the industrial sector in 2020, and it stands to reason that the additional burdens placed on these essential workers (not to mention the staggering increase in e-commerce demand) during the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated the issue.

As any corporate accountant can tell you, employee turnover can have a major impact on a company’s bottom line. And large-scale owners of industrial assets are under the same market pressures as office, multifamily or hotel owners when it comes to ESG reporting and performance.

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NAIOP Insights: ESG Essentials for Commercial Real Estate

Originally published on January 19, 2023 for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

ESG is emerging as a hot topic for businesses and commercial real estate development in particular. To stay ahead, developers can embrace standards to set their projects up for success. Learn how smart building technologies, tax and state incentive programs, and setting measurable goals as companies establish their ESG practices can support this evolving initiative.

NAIOP Insight by: Rielle Green, LEED AP O+M, WELL AP, Fitwel Ambassador Director of ESG, Acadia Realty Trust.

This NAIOP Insight was filmed at CRE.Converge 2022.

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Return to the Hill: CL&LR 2023

Originally published on January 18, 2023 by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

In less than two weeks – and for the first time since February 2020 and the start of the COVID-19 pandemic – NAIOP members and chapter local executives will be headed to Capitol Hill to meet with their elected representatives, senators and congressional staff. In so doing, they will be taking the opportunity to establish relationships with newly elected members of Congress, renew and deepen existing ties with incumbents, and talk to their elected officials about issues important to the commercial real estate industry.

All of this occurs as part of NAIOP’s Chapter Leadership and Legislative Retreat (CL&LR), a three-day conference where local NAIOP chapter executives and their leadership come together in our nation’s capital to talk about their chapters, share best practices, and spend a day meeting with their elected federal representatives on Wednesday, Feb. 1, Capitol Hill Day. For much of the next two weeks, NAIOP members coming to Washington, D.C. will be scheduling meetings with their senators and representatives to discuss NAIOP’s 2023 Federal Priorities with them.

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What a Way for Congress to Start the Year

Originally published on January 4, 2023, by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

A word that has been repeatedly used to describe the workings of Congress is “chaos.” So why should we expect things to change just because it’s a new year? The spectacle put on by the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives trying to choose a speaker this week clearly shows that nothing will be a sure thing in this Congress.

Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the Republican minority leader in the last Congress who wanted to be speaker in the next, after his party won a slim majority in the 2022 congressional midterm elections, failed to get the needed number of votes on the first round of voting. Then he failed on the second round. Ditto on the third try.  Meanwhile, House Democrats were clearly enjoying the Republican dysfunction, with all of them voting for their leader, Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), giving him more votes than McCarthy. While Jeffries was not going to get enough votes to become the speaker, it was great optics for House Democrats who were united while Republicans appeared disorganized.

Choosing a speaker is the first order of business for a newly elected Congress. It’s a constitutional requirement, and nothing in the House happens until a speaker is chosen. Members cannot be sworn in, committee assignments cannot be made, and Congress cannot consider legislation. It has been 100 years since a speaker was not chosen by a new Congress on the first ballot.

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Meet Kim Snyder, 2023 NAIOP Chair

Originally published on January 3, 2023 by NAIOP E-Newsletter.

“NAIOP has done a great job of recruiting the best of the best in our business to get involved,” said Snyder in a message to NAIOP members. “It shows a commitment, it shows a dedication to our industry, that you don't see every day. So, I'm super excited about this coming year and working with all the volunteers and helping to guide the outcomes to a positive place.”

Snyder is president, west region, for Prologis, Inc. His career spans more than 30 years in industrial real estate, and he is responsible for all Prologis development, acquisitions and operations in key markets including the Inland Empire, Los Angeles, Seattle and the San Francisco Bay Area.

He has been a NAIOP member since 2004, has contributed as a member of the executive committee, and is a longtime member of NAIOP’s National Forums program. He is a member of the NAIOP Inland Empire and NAIOP SoCal chapters.

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What Will 2023 Bring for CRE?

Originally published on December 27, 2022 for NAIOP E-Newsletter by Ed Finkel.

As the calendar turns to 2023, what’s ahead for the commercial real estate field? We talked to several NAIOP Distinguished Fellows and Research Foundation Governors to get their forecasts for the next 12 months.

Investor Interest in Single-family Housing 

Single-family rental housing is top-of-mind for Distinguished Fellow Suzanne Lanyi Charles, who chairs the Paul Rubacha Department of Real Estate at Cornell University. A sector that grew quickly after the 2008 housing crisis, single-family rentals have become a well-established asset class with publicly traded and private companies that have as many as 80,000 units, she notes.

The rapidly rising interest rates of the past year have led smaller investors to pull back, Charles says, but that creates an opportunity for the large to become larger. “I’d expect to see the largest institutional investors, those that have access to cheap capital, to use this period of high-interest rates and declining home values, to grow even larger,” she says.

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CommercialEdge: Office Vacancy Rates Rise Nationwide in 2022

Originally published on December 19, 2022 by Eliza Theiss for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Although many in the industry had assumed that the office market would stabilize in 2022 –  and perhaps even begin to recover pandemic losses – this stabilization did not occur. Rather, wider economic changes; repeated interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve; the further establishment of work-from-home and remote office arrangements; and increasing numbers of office footprint reductions by businesses caused vacancy rates to continue to rise throughout the year. At the same time, rent growth remained patchy.

Listing Rates Show Significant Growth, But Only in Select Markets

Large segments of the office-using sector have adopted remote and hybrid work (at least in part) since the start of the pandemic. Accordingly, the demand for offices has decreased in most markets. In addition, many businesses have also reduced the size of their offices, while others have firm intentions to do the same in the near future. As a result, the national vacancy rate – which reached 16.3% in November – was 150 basis points (bps) higher than it was in October 2021, according to the most recent CommercialEdge report.

In fact, during the last 12 months, vacancy rates increased in 86 of the 120 areas monitored by CommercialEdge, including 22 of the 25 most significant markets. Specifically, the leading U.S. office markets with the largest vacancy rate increases were San Francisco (+390 bps) and Portland, Oregon (+400 bps).

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State Election Successes for Both Political Parties in 2022

Originally published on December 14, 2022 by Toby Burke for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

While the primary focus of the national media during the 2022 election may have been on a potential “red wave” for control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, there were over 6,200 state legislative races in 46 states according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The outcomes of these state races significantly impact core policy issues of importance for commercial real estate, such as taxes, regulations and economic development. Generally, political pundits may conclude that the status quo was maintained in this election cycle, with Republicans remaining in political control in a majority of state legislatures and Democrats making modest but significant gains in a few.

Both the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee can claim political successes, either maintaining or flipping political majorities in certain state chambers. These include lowering a chamber’s majority by the opposing party gaining seats, or ending veto-proof majorities. 

The post-election analysis by MultiState shows 28 state legislatures under full Republican control, compared to 20 legislatures under full Democratic control. The political parties in the commonwealths of Pennsylvania and Virginia will have divided control between the two chambers heading into the 2023 session. Prior to this year’s election, Republicans controlled 30 state legislatures to 17 by the Democrats with 3 under divided control: Alaska (House bipartisan coalition), Minnesota and Virginia. The election breakdown by Multistate reflects Democrats taking over chamber majorities in the Michigan legislature, the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House.

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