Navigating a New Real Estate Cycle

Brielle Scott for Market Share Blog | March 16, 2026

In the latest episode of the Inside CRE podcast, NAIOP President and CEO Marc Selvitelli sat down with Carleton Riser, president of Transwestern, for a wide-ranging conversation on development strategy, market timing and how smart capital is positioning for the next upcycle. With more than 30 years in the business, Riser has seen multiple downturns, and the lessons he’s carried forward are shaping how he approaches today’s unique environment.

Another Cycle, Another Lesson

The dot-com bust underscored the fact that “credit actually matters,” Riser said, after markets cratered on the back of “phantom absorption” (where commercial real estate space appears occupied on paper but goes unused). The Global Financial Crisis taught him that “having flexibility in your capitalization matters because when the tide goes out and there’s no liquidity in the market, you need to make sure you’ve got some sort of staying power.”

More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic fueled a surge in multifamily and industrial development, where “the markets got out over their skis, inflation came in, and then an interest rate spike [occurred]. From a development standpoint, we’ve been in a three-year downturn because of that,” he said.

Thankfully, “we have a very diversified business, both geographically and by product type, which I think has served us well through these different fluctuations in the market,” Riser said.

Making Smarter Bets in Today’s Market

With capital markets disruptive and liquidity still constrained, Riser says Transwestern evaluates new projects in two different ways: the cost of upfront pursuit capital and the potential capital markets environment 9-18 months down the road when institutional partners would likely join the deal.

That means only the strongest opportunities make the cut. “The better deals are the first deals to get done as we emerge from this trough,” Riser said. Transwestern is prioritizing projects in submarkets with strong fundamentals, backed by smart underwriting and realistic assumptions around occupancy and rents.

Mixed-use Success Means Flexibility

Mixed-use development is complex but rewarding, Riser said, and requires discipline from day one. Don’t assume a mixed-use project can fix a weaker location: every individual use must stand on its own. Flexibility is key; plans must be able to adapt as market conditions evolve without requiring a complete redesign. Capital stacks should allow each component of the project to attract the right investors.