Risk, Reality and Recovery: Industrial Leaders on What Comes Next

Brielle Scott for Market Share Blog | March 4, 2026

“Industrial capital markets have clearly moved out of the zero cap rate environment that defined the last cycle. Today, we’re operating in a more disciplined market. Capital costs are higher. Leasing fundamentals have moderated, and investors are being forced to price risk much more carefully,” said Andrew Briner, executive managing director, Newmark, setting the scene for a panel discussion on industrial capital markets at NAIOP’s I.CON West this week.

Joining him were Ryan Collins, executive vice president, EastGroup Properties; Brian Russell, executive vice president, CBRE; Pete Williams, senior vice president of investments, Western region, CenterPoint Properties; and Tucker Wincele, managing director, Invesco.

“What makes today’s discussion particularly valuable is the range of capital perspectives we have on stage, from public REIT to pension fund capital to large equity fund capital, along with real-time market intelligence from the brokerage frontlines,” Briner said.

As you look across the Western U.S. today, what types of opportunities are most compelling and what are you actively avoiding?

“We’re still looking at development sites in all our core markets,” said Collins, naming Phoenix, Tampa and Dallas as high-growth markets in focus. “I’d say for us, the opportunity lies in continuing to find sites to help increase our development pipeline.”

“I think we’ve got a lot of conviction for anything with an advanced manufacturing orientation to it right now,” said Williams, “So we’ve been most active in the Bay area, the South 880 corridor. There’s a lot of momentum down here in Southern California with aerospace and defense that we’re monitoring pretty closely.”

“There’s limited core capital out in the market, and I think there’s a lot of really good product you can get at or below replacement cost,” said Russell. “Vacancies are starting to tighten up… I think we’re all time low in the [U.S.] construction pipeline over the last 14 or 15 years. So those trend lines are telling you things are going to start to move in the right direction on the rent side.”

The market is unquestionably more complex than it was a few years ago. What do you see as the biggest challenge to executing investments in today’s environment?

“One of the biggest things that we continue to encounter is a pretty wide bid-ask spread,” said Williams. “It feels like institutions have been gradually marking assets down quarter over quarter and doesn’t feel like it’s truly caught up with where the market is.”

“Most investment professionals are big believers in the long-term performance and demand drivers of Southern California,” said Wincele. “That being said, the data is not super encouraging.”

Collins agreed. “On the positive side, supply is at a record low, so I don’t think it’s going to take much on the demand side to get things really going again in L.A.”