A Measured Optimism: Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook for 2026

Kathryn Hamilton, CAE for Market Share Blog | January 26, 2026

As a new year begins, the economic backdrop feels cautiously constructive, but hardly carefree. The U.S. economy is navigating a complex mix of powerful tailwinds and persistent headwinds, creating a climate best described as measured optimism.

During a recent economic and real estate outlook call hosted by Marcus & Millichap, leading economists and industry experts unpacked what lies ahead for growth, jobs and the major commercial real estate sectors.

At the macro level, the economy is expected to keep moving forward, though not without friction, opened Hessam Nadji, CEO of Marcus & Millichap.  Job growth slowed meaningfully in 2025, and that softness is likely to linger.

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi said, “I wouldn’t expect a whole lot of jobs in 2026, but just enough to keep unemployment close to where it is.” With the national unemployment rate currently around 4.4%, expectations are that it will hover between 4.5% and 5% over the coming year – still low by historical standards, but reflective of a cooler labor market.

 

The Economic Forecast: Tailwinds Meet Headwinds

The outlook for GDP growth in 2026 rests heavily on two major tailwinds: artificial intelligence (AI) and fiscal stimulus. AI has emerged as a surprisingly powerful growth engine. Zandi pointed to massive investment in data centers, chips, servers and power infrastructure as key signals that it’s full speed ahead. The U.S. continues to lead globally, with roughly 5,000 to 6,000 data centers operating or under construction, far outpacing the rest of the world.

The second channel through which AI is influencing the economy is financial markets. A sharp rise in AI-related stock valuations has driven an enormous wealth effect. “Total shareholder wealth in the U.S. today is about $10 trillion greater than it was a year ago,” Zandi said. Even a modest wealth effect from those gains has translated into stronger consumer spending, particularly among higher-income households.

Layered on top of that is fiscal stimulus – tax cuts, increased government spending and larger tax refunds, which are projected to be about $100 billion higher than last year. Together, these factors should provide a meaningful boost to GDP in the first half of 2026.

Still, headwinds remain. Trade policy, tariffs, restrictive immigration policies, and the risk of financial market volatility in the bond market temper the optimism. “At the end of the day, the tailwinds and headwinds should net out to growth,” Zandi said, “but the risks are still more to the downside than the upside.”

 

Multifamily: Strong Demand, Thin Supply Ahead

Against that economic backdrop, the multifamily sector stands out for its long-term fundamentals, said Sharon Wilson Geno, president of the National Multifamily Housing Council. Apartment vacancies remain relatively stable and below 5% nationally, but the most striking development is on the supply side. Multifamily starts have fallen roughly 72% from their peak, and units under construction are down more than 50%.