Zeihan on China, Inflation Predictions, Demographics and the Labor Supply
Originally published on October 25, 2023 by Brielle Scott for NAIOP.
Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future. At NAIOP’s CRE.Converge last week in Seattle, attendees had an opportunity to hear from him at the closing keynote.
Zeihan covered everything from Stalin to NAFTA to the best time to buy a BMW. Here are just a few takeaways from his talk.
U.S. DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS AND THE LABOR FORCE
“What we’re seeing is a significant relocation of people – the biggest since the 1950s,” Zeihan said. People are moving to an arc of cities from roughly Salt Lake City down the Front Range into Texas, back up through the South to around Richmond. “That ‘U’ is seeing a fairly strong internal population migration. Everyone else is seeing a decline.” Which generations are moving? Those who have money to spend (Boomers) and families to raise (millennials).
The Baby Boomers are the largest generation the U.S. has ever had and the largest workforce ever. That group hit retirement in the fourth quarter of 2022, on average.