Outlook for Election Year 2020: Positive … But With Slower Growth
Originally published on January 15, 2020.
In their own words, our industry’s collective wisdom believes it will be more difficult to compete for deals and talent in 2020 resulting in slower growth. The outlook for 2020 is overwhelmingly positive, but the legacy from the Global Financial Crisis remains, and our industry continues to run lean, preventing the surges in hiring expected in a market this hot. In 2020 this is exacerbated by “too much capital”. Too much capital chasing deals. And, starting in late 2019, for the first time in years, capital chasing talent, adding to the difficulty to compete in this hiring environment. The rise of New Growth Cities, where deals are traditionally done at a slower pace, also factors into the positive prediction for growth, but slower growth. Retail generated the most negative responses, but others believed it is the forefront of evolutionary and historical time in retail with new blood entering the marketplace. A new issue arose: As lawlessness and runaway crime continues not to be enforced, it destroys markets. Another concern: As a finance executive, I am a bit concerned with some of the assumptions driving transitional loans and the significant amount of capital raised for this strategy (especially late in the cycle).