Originally published on January 31, 2023, by NAIOP E-Newsletter.

NAIOP is your forward-thinking partner committed to working alongside our members to build your knowledge, advance your career and protect your business.

Watch our 2022 accomplishments and preview what's ahead for the association throughout this year, including the release of new programs, opportunities to connect across the chapter network, and resources that will move our members' businesses forward.

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Originally published on January 26, 2023 by Kathryn Hamilton for NAIOP E-Newsletter. 

The impact of new commercial real estate development in the U.S. continues to grow, according to the annual Economic Impacts of Commercial Real Estate research study conducted by the NAIOP Research Foundation.

The combined economic contributions of new commercial building development and the operations of existing commercial buildings in 2022 resulted in direct expenditures of $826.9 billion and the following impacts on the U.S. economy: 

• Contributed $2.3 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
• Generated $831.8 billion in personal earnings.
• Supported 15.1 million jobs.

Among other highlights:

• Significant (143.4%) increase in non-warehouse (manufacturing) industrial building construction in 2022, making it the largest segment of new CRE construction in 2022.
• The four property types covered in the report saw increased construction spending (hard costs) last year (see table).

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Originally published on January 19, 2023 for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

ESG is emerging as a hot topic for businesses and commercial real estate development in particular. To stay ahead, developers can embrace standards to set their projects up for success. Learn how smart building technologies, tax and state incentive programs, and setting measurable goals as companies establish their ESG practices can support this evolving initiative.

NAIOP Insight by: Rielle Green, LEED AP O+M, WELL AP, Fitwel Ambassador Director of ESG, Acadia Realty Trust.

This NAIOP Insight was filmed at CRE.Converge 2022.

Watch NAIOP Insights Video Series

Originally published in NAIOP Research Foundation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Report. 

Absorption Will Continue to Slow into 2023 Amid Economic Uncertainty

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published the NAIOP Office Space Demand Forecast for Q4 2022.

Key Takeaways:

• Office market vacancy rates rose to 17.1% in the third quarter of 2022 as the completion of new space outstripped net absorption. This marks the highest vacancy rate since the third quarter of 1993.
• Class A buildings continue to outperform the rest of the sector as tenants migrate to spaces that offer more flexible layouts and modern amenities.
• Leading economic indicators and an inverted yield curve point to the growing risks of a recession in 2023. Occupiers are growing more cautious, opting to sublease space, and choosing smaller footprints when leases come up for renewal.
• Given these trends, net office space absorption in 2023 is forecast to slow to only 8.1 million square feet for the full year, following an absorption of 7.1 million square feet in the fourth quarter of 2022.
• Absorption is forecast to rebound in the first three quarters of 2024 to a total of 13.3 million square feet.
  
  

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Originally  published on November 15, 2022, by NAIOP.

NAIOP’s valuable 60-page e-book, “Rules of Thumb for Distribution/Warehouse Facilities Design, Second Edition,” allows you to gain a step up in today’s competitive marketplace. The e-book includes detailed instructions and diagrams on everything from site planning to floor slabs. Members save 50% off the list price!

Rules of Thumb for Distribution/Warehouse Facilities Design, second edition, has been extensively updated with new must-know information and detailed illustrations. Author and former principal with HPA, Inc., Byron Pinckert, has drawn on his firm’s decades of industry experience to explain best-practice methods for planning and designing warehouse facilities. This 60-page e-book addresses topics including site planning for truck and rail delivery, material handling equipment and racking systems layouts, as well as field-tested approaches to complex features such as floor slabs and roofs. Rules of Thumb for Distribution/Warehouse Facilities Design will help developers achieve peak operational efficiency for their tenants and build-to-suit clients.

Purchase Book

Originally published in October 2022, by Clifford A. Lipscomb, Ph.D., MRICS for NAIOP.

Industries are rapidly evolving as business processes grow more interconnected and automated. Data and analytics play an important role in information technologies and their interaction with the physical world, including emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things (IoT), and virtual and augmented reality. Although commercial real estate (CRE) has been slower than other industries to adopt data analytics, some firms have identified several ways that data analytics can support land and building development and contribute to better project outcomes.

To gain a sense of how CRE firms are using advanced data analytics, the NAIOP Research Foundation commissioned this report to examine applications in site selection, design, and valuation for commercial buildings. The author conducted a secondary research and interviewed brokers, data providers, investors, developers and professionals at CRE technology firms.

Firms continue to rely primarily on traditional forms of market research when making investment and development decisions. Nonetheless, several commercial real estate technology companies have developed specialized software that draws from data analytics to support applications ranging from highest and best-use analysis to real-time building rendering. These emerging applications suggest that data analytics has the potential to add substantial value to new development projects through improved siting decisions and building design.

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Is your 2023 salary and bonus package competitive? Find out with the 2022 NAIOP/CEL Commercial Real Estate Compensation and Benefits Reports. These valuable reports (either Office/Industrial-Retail or Office/Industrial-Retail-Residential) enable commercial real estate businesses to stay current on salaries, bonuses, and benefits for CRE professionals from executive to entry-level positions.

The report includes:

Submissions from over 300 companies

Salary, bonus, incentives, and benefits for up to 200 positions

Originally published on October 18, 2022, by NAIOP.

The NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index for September 2022 is 47, down from April’s reading of 53. It is at its lowest level since September 2020. This reading suggests that respondents expect unfavorable conditions for commercial real estate over the next 12 months. 

Key Takeaways:

• Respondents expect higher interest rates, higher cap rates, and a decrease in the supply of equity and debt over the next year.
• Their outlook for occupancy rates, face rents, and effective rents are also less optimistic, though they still expect rents to grow.
• Respondents also expect a sharp deterioration in general industry conditions over the next 12 months.
• The only positive development in the September survey is that respondents expect a slower pace of construction cost inflation over the next year.
• Despite a more pessimistic outlook for development conditions, developers plan to maintain recent deal volume over the coming year.
• Most respondents expect to be most active in projects or transactions related to industrial properties over the next year.

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Originally published in the Fall 2022 NAIOP Development Magazine by Ron Derven.

Since its founding in Dallas in 1991, Granite Properties has understood the impact of real estate developments on people and communities. That’s why it creates spaces and relationships where people can flourish while supporting local communities.

For its outstanding quality of products and services, financial stability, ability to adapt to market conditions, support of NAIOP, and support for the communities where it works, Granite Properties is NAIOP’s 2022 Developer of the Year.

“This award is recognition from our peers that not only are we doing good things, but we are doing them in a way that benefits all of our constituencies,” said Michael Dardick, CEO of Granite. “What makes it even more special is that it comes from NAIOP, a prestigious industry group.”

Amid lower pressure on global supply chains, increasing inventory carrying costs, a cooling economy and a decrease in the rate of e-commerce expansion, retailers and logistics firms have slowed the rate at which they acquired additional industrial space this year. Net absorption of industrial space in the first two quarters of 2022 was 151.2 million square feet, down sharply from 2021’s record pace but still notably higher than in prior years (see Figure 2). The authors expect the still-hot industrial market to cool, and they forecast that the net absorption rate will continue to decline until it returns to the pre-pandemic trend. Total net absorption of industrial space in the second half of 2022 is forecast to be 112.4 million square feet, and full-year absorption in 2023 is forecast to be 209.4 million square feet (see Figure 1 for quarterly projections).

The Industrial Market

Supply chain congestion eased during the first half of 2022, as illustrated by the decline in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index from 4.35 in December 2021 to 2.41 in June 2022. As a result, retailers and logistics firms have shown less interest in leasing or buying industrial space before it is needed, a trend that contributed to higher absorption in 2021. Amazon’s decision to substantially scale back its expansion plans is the most prominent example of this shift in demand for industrial space. Nonetheless, smaller e-commerce firms, and even traditional retailers, continue to lease more distribution space despite slowing e-commerce growth as more consumers return to shopping at bricks-and-mortar retail. Industrial vacancy rates remain historically low as the ability to supply new space continues to face physical and political limitations in land-constrained markets. These low vacancy rates continue to cause asking rents, and ultimately transaction prices, to increase. Premium prices are being paid for properties with soon-to-expire leases and even vacancies as they allow owners to lease out more space at record-high market rates.

Thursday will mark the release of the Strategic Mobility Plan (SMP) draft. The public can access the May 19 meeting at this link.

The SMP’s goal is to shape the mobility future for the City of Charlotte and expand on the “Safe and Equitable Mobility” goal of the Charlotte Future 2040 Comprehensive Plan (2040 Plan). The SMP dives deeper into the mobility policies of 2040 Plan to achieve a safe, connected, equitable, sustainable, prosperous, and innovative mobility vision for Charlotte. To learn more, follow this link to the Strategic Mobility Plan homepage.

SMP Virtual Engagement Sessions will be live on Thursday, May 26 (6 p.m.) and Tuesday, May 31 (noon). Meeting links will be available by visiting charlottenc.gov/smp.

Additionally, you can sign up to share input during the public comment portion of the City Council Business Meeting on Monday, June 13, at 6 p.m.

UDO – Updates

On Wednesday, there will be a presentation on the findings related to the Economic Analysis of the draft UDO.

originally posted by REBIC for Two for Tuesday with permission to repost

Starting 15 February 2022, Land Development application permits submitted will have to comply with NCIFC 507.1 and 507.5.1. for hydrant spacing. Hydrant spacing to sprinkler system FDC, (both NFPA 13 and 13R) will have to be within 200’ of truck travel to the respected fire hydrant.

Top 3 Items to Note:

1. We are making significant progress on our efforts to identify and bring aboard a seasoned individual to provide additional eyes and ears on the ground in Iredell County and Cabarrus County.  More on that to come later this week.

2. The City of Charlotte is seeking development/real estate representatives to serve on two advisory boards created by the passage of the policy section of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan.  It is essential we engage qualified and knowledgeable individuals to fill these positions.  We have an incredible opportunity here and I could use your help.  (Deadline is Friday, August 27^th, details follow)

For more information on the new advisory boards, please visit: https://charlottenc.gov/CityClerk/Pages/BoardsandCommissions.aspx

3. The next phases of CLT Future 2040 (mapping and UDO) are underway –

• Alan and I had our second monthly meeting with Taiwo and Alyson last Thursday.  As a result of that meeting, REBIC will be putting together a small group of design professionals that will meet with planning staff every two weeks (for as long as necessary) beginning a few days prior to the public release of the UDO on October 4^th.  These meetings will allow REBIC representatives to provide feedback and to receive an immediate response, much earlier in the process, on elements of the proposed ordinance that could be problematic if implemented  It also allows us to be a cheerleader for those things in the UDO that help streamline the process and reduce development time frames.

• Brenda Hayden will be joining Alan and me for the monthly meetings beginning in September.

• A brief presentation containing the projected schedule for mapping/UDO is here.

• The planning staff is providing a presentation to the Transportation, Planning, and Environment Committee this morning at 10:30 am.  Here’s a link to the agenda (viewing information is contained therein):  https://charlottenc.gov/CityCouncil/Committees/Transportation%20and%20Planning%20Doc/TAPE_Committee_Meeting_Agenda_August_23_2021.pdf

• There will also be a presentation to the full Charlotte City Council this evening.  The meeting begins at 5:00 pm and the agenda is located here: file:///C:/Users/rnanfelt/AppData/Local/Packages/Microsoft.MicrosoftEdge_8wekyb3d8bbwe/TempState/Downloads/Agenda%20(1).pdf

• To view the meeting, click on this link and go to the appropriate viewing box:  https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=city+of+charlotte

• Due to recent and higher than anticipated COVID infection rates, the Government Center has been closed to the public for the time being.

originally published by REBIC with permission to repost through NAIOP Charlotte

The North Carolina General Assembly released their long-awaited conference budget report on Monday. The budget, once approved by both chambers, will then be sent to the Governor. Today, Governor Cooper indicated he would sign the budget proposal.

The budget includes massive infrastructure investments. 

Originally published for NAIOP's Development Magazine Summer 2021 Issue by Trey Barrineau.

However, a lot of work remains despite tangible advances in recent years.

Women and minorities have made some progress in reaching the C-suite in commercial real estate investment management firms during the past few years, but the 2021 NAREIM Diversity & Inclusion Survey shows that there is still a lot of work to do.

“Material, sustained changes will take time to show through in the data,” said Zoe Hughes, CEO of NAREIM, in a release. “But what is clear is that there is a mandate and momentum for DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) to be a priority within the real estate investment management industry.”

The survey, conducted by NAREIM and executive recruitment firm Ferguson Partners, reveals that the real estate investment management industry as a whole is mostly male and white. Men, who are 49.2% of the U.S. population according to the U.S. Census, comprise 60% of full-time employees in the real estate investment management, and non-Hispanic whites, who are 62.8% of the U.S. population, represent 73% of workers. (Blacks make up 6% of the industry, while Asians and Hispanics each represent 10% of CRE investment-management staffing.)

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Industrial Space Demand Remains Strong 

Demand for industrial real estate continues to be strong as the long-term trend toward e-commerce (and away from in-store sales) continues with no end in sight. With nearly 100 million new square feet delivered nationally since the beginning of the year, 450 million square feet currently under construction and another 450 million planned, the demand for industrial real estate still outpaces supply.¹

Because of this, authors Dr. Hany Guirguis and Dr. Michael Seiler forecast that the total net absorption in the second half of 2021 will be 162.6 million square feet with a quarterly average of 81.3 million square feet. In 2022, the projected net absorption is 334.6 million square feet with a quarterly average of 83.6 million square feet. An improvement in the outlook for the economy in 2021 and 2022 is behind the upward revision of the 2022 forecast. For example, the real GDP growth rate is now forecast to be 7% in 2021, above the previous forecast of 5% growth. As economic growth is projected to revert toward long-term growth rates in 2023, net absorption in the first half of the year is forecast to be 160.5 million square feet, for a quarterly average of 80.2 million square feet. 

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Originally published by Hany Guirguis, Ph.D., Manhattan College and Michael J. Seiler, DBA, William & Mary in August 2021

Industrial Space Demand Remains Strong 

Demand for industrial real estate continues to be strong as the long-term trend toward e-commerce (and away from in-store sales) continues with no end in sight. With nearly 100 million new square feet delivered nationally since the beginning of the year, 450 million square feet currently under construction, and another 450 million planned, the demand for industrial real estate still outpaces supply.¹

Because of this, authors Dr. Hany Guirguis and Dr. Michael Seiler forecast that the total net absorption in the second half of 2021 will be 162.6 million square feet with a quarterly average of 81.3 million square feet. In 2022, the projected net absorption is 334.6 million square feet with a quarterly average of 83.6 million square feet. An improvement in the outlook for the economy in 2021 and 2022 is behind the upward revision of the 2022 forecast. For example, the real GDP growth rate is now forecast to be 7% in 2021, above the previous forecast of 5% growth. As economic growth is projected to revert toward long-term growth rates in 2023, net absorption in the first half of the year is forecast to be 160.5 million square feet, for a quarterly average of 80.2 million square feet. 

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Originally published on May 2021 by Hany Guirguis, Ph.D., Manhattan College and Michael J. Seiler, DBA, William & Mary and the University of Cambridge.

Office Space Absorption Projected to Stabilize by Mid-2022

The U.S. economy is experiencing a strong rebound from the COVID-19-induced recession, resulting in job growth in office-using sectors. However, tenant-safety concerns remain a drag on office leasing. The U.S. office market posted continued declines in net absorption in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-26.7 million square feet) and the first quarter of 2021 (-34.8 million square feet). Nonetheless, as coronavirus safety concerns abate and the economy continues to expand, negative net absorption is forecast to moderate over the next two quarters, with a return to positive absorption in the fourth quarter of this year (Figure 1). Quarterly net absorption in 2022 is expected to average 11.7 million square feet, in line with the 2015-2019 quarterly average of 11.6 million square feet.

At the time of this writing, more than half of eligible Americans have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccination, and more than one-third are fully vaccinated. As vaccination rates increase and new coronavirus cases decline, more employers are re-opening their offices. However, a widespread return to the office will likely depend on the return of K-12 schools to in-person instruction. Many schools currently rely on a full- or part-time remote schedule, requiring parents of young children to either stay home or seek alternative childcare arrangements. With vaccination rates on the rise, most schools are now planning to resume full in-person instruction in the fall. As safety concerns about returning to the office recede and schools reopen, office absorption should begin to respond to the current upswing in economic growth.

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CREW Charlotte is excited to host its first in-person luncheon in over a year! Space is limited so do not delay.

Learn more about the Charlotte Future 2040 Comprehensive Plan from Assistant City Manager, Taiwo Jaiyeoba.

Charlotte has been one of the fastest-growing cities in the country in recent years. This growth has established Charlotte as a vibrant and desirable city. However, this rapid development has also contributed to and highlighted, many challenges that have faced our community for decades. The Charlotte Future 2040 comprehensive plan outlines how we address these challenges and guide our growth and development over the next 20 years. This plan is a living document that provides a policy framework that will guide our city’s decision-making and investment in both the near- and long-term. The community-driven planning process has been guided by a focus on equitable growth and Charlotte's residents coming together to prioritize what is most important to us (housing, jobs, environment, livability, etc. The plan seeks to address the inequities of the past and unite the city around a shared set of goals for our future.