Originally published on August 30, 2023, by Gary Baragona for NAIOP.

The slow recovery of the U.S. economy continues to have an impact on the office market in Seattle as well as across the county. Despite steady job growth and moderate economic recovery gains during the first half of 2023, the Puget Sound regional economy is still struggling and will face continued headwinds during the near term, bringing an enduring sense of uncertainty and concern. According to the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, regional employment grew by 3.1% in 2022 while job growth is forecasted to increase by an additional 3.3% in 2023 before dipping to 1.5% in 2024. Additionally, the consumer price index was at 8.9% to begin the year, with inflation forecasted to rise by 5.2% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024.

Despite recent job growth, the Seattle office market is experiencing a steady rise in vacancy, increasing from 5.8% in the second quarter of 2019 to 12.2% at the end of the second quarter of 2022, a 640-basis point jump over just a three-year period. Current vacancies are at a 10-year high and just registered the 12th quarterly increase over the past 14 quarters. One year ago, regional vacancy exceeded the 10% mark for the first time since 2013, and it has now eclipsed 12% for the first time since 2011. Additionally, more than 19% of the current vacancies are from sublease space, which is approximately 18% higher than it was last quarter. The increase was primarily due to an uptick in Eastside sublease vacancies over the quarter.

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Originally published on August 18, 2023 by Paul Bubny for ConnectCRE.

The role of amenities has evolved since the pandemic—not only in the office sector, but in the ever-evolving industrial space as well. To provide an up-to-the-minute look at trends in amenitizing commercial spaces, NAIOP will devote an entire panel discussion to the subject at its CRE.Converge conference, scheduled for Oct. 18-20 in Seattle. In advance of that panel, Connect CRE spoke with two of the panelists—moderator Dawn Riegel, Principal with Ware Malcomb, and Jinger Tapia, VP Design at Ware Malcomb—for a preview. Here’s what they told us.

Q: Would you say that workplace amenities are now more important than they were prior to the pandemic?

Dawn Riegel: In the true office environment, the message I share with my clients is: you want to create a magnet versus a mandate. Meaning you want people to come back into the office and what you are offering them needs to be above and beyond what’s in the four walls of their house. It really is the social aspect for employees. The amenity spaces within office environments, and this does translate to industrial, are super important now more than ever. The hybrid work movement dictates that these amenity spaces be integrated into office spaces from day one.

Originally published on July 25, 2023, by Diana Sabau for NAIOP.

In the post-pandemic office market, the “flight to quality” trend among tenants has been growing alongside increased demands for sustainability. Consequently, demonstrating to clients that a property is equipped with the latest in energy-saving technologies and smart materials is the new standard. And, increasingly, clients are looking beyond their office windows to take a more holistic approach to sustainability, considering factors such as the city’s commitment to reducing carbon dioxide emissions, plans to build electric vehicle infrastructure or the stringency of local building policies.

With that in mind, 42Floors set out to compile a list of the most eco-friendly office markets across the U.S. by ranking cities using eight metrics. Specifically, entries received points for their performances across indicators that rated the local office inventory (including certifications, energy efficiency and materials used), as well as the environment in which the assets are located (like building policies, EV charging stations, public transit and walkability).

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Originally published on July 6, 2023 by Marie Rugg for NAIOP.

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic caused massive disruption to office work as usual. Companies that had been cautiously optimistic going into 2020 experienced dramatic upheaval just a few months in as stay-at-home orders transitioned to longer-lasting changes in where and how people work. Cities and municipalities worldwide continue to grapple with the question of how to handle office space sitting idle in formerly bustling central business districts.

In a recent NAIOP webinar, Gensler Principal Steven Paynter, OAA, ARB, explored the firm’s data-driven process for analyzing underused office spaces and determining how to transform them into vibrant and livable residential buildings.

At the end of 2019, Gensler had talked to their clients about their outlook on the year ahead and any concerns they had about the coming year. Many clients said their Class A office buildings had 1-2% vacancies; however, their Class B and Class C office buildings weren’t doing as well, even with upgrades and added amenities. In the chaos of the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Gensler examined in depth how they could help to stabilize and rebuild their clients’ confidence in their portfolios and protect the value of their assets.

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Originally published on June 14, 2023, by Kathryn Hamilton, CAE for NAIOP.

The sluggish return to the office, financing and liquidity, and new ways of approaching the office sector were the predominant themes of an elite gathering of c-suite office owners, investors and developers. The conversation, spearheaded by NAIOP and hosted last week in New York City, explored the challenges and opportunities facing the sector. 

Here are key takeaways from the event: 

Office can learn from other sectors. Look to the retail industry for rebounding inspiration. Despite being labeled “dead” just a few short years ago, retail has reinvented itself by transforming its business model – and it has worked. Office has the same potential for turn around by creating spaces that are an experience, not only a workplace. Flexible workspaces and formats are a must – hot desks, private office and conference rooms are needed, but not equally every day. Don’t underestimate the benefit of “network effects,” or after-hours networking events that are a real draw for tenants and reasons to excite employees about coming to the office. Class A product that offers amenity and community spaces continue to be quickly leased.  

Originally published on June 14, 2023, by Kathryn Hamilton, CAE for NAIOP.

The sluggish return to the office, financing and liquidity, and new ways of approaching the office sector were the predominant themes of an elite gathering of c-suite office owners, investors and developers. The conversation, spearheaded by NAIOP and hosted last week in New York City, explored the challenges and opportunities facing the sector. 

Here are key takeaways from the event: 

Office can learn from other sectors. Look to the retail industry for rebounding inspiration. Despite being labeled “dead” just a few short years ago, retail has reinvented itself by transforming its business model – and it has worked. Office has the same potential for turn around by creating spaces that are an experience, not only a workplace. Flexible workspaces and formats are a must – hot desks, private office and conference rooms are needed, but not equally every day. Don’t underestimate the benefit of “network effects,” or after-hours networking events that are a real draw for tenants and reasons to excite employees about coming to the office. Class A product that offers amenity and community spaces continue to be quickly leased.  

Originally published on May 30, 2023, by Jennifer Lefurgy, Ph.D. for NAIOP.

The NAIOP Research Foundation, as part of its Industry Trends meeting, recently hosted a panel discussion on what’s next for the office sector. Analysts from leading service firms joined NAIOP Research Foundation Governors and office developers Greg Fuller, president and COO, Granite Properties and Paul Ciminelli, president and CEO, Ciminelli Development, to discuss problems and potential opportunities. The panelists agreed that the sector will undergo a shakeout that will include transformation, streamlining, new approaches to work and holistic solutions.

A “Broken” Market

Remote work and economic headwinds have created a negative demand shock in the office sector and a temporarily “broken” market that has not yet reached stability. Before the pandemic, office workspaces were densifying, with less square footage assigned per employee. Remote work and downsizing accelerated this trend, with tenants now needing less space per employee. Although office-using employment has rebounded from the brief pandemic-induced recession, office space demand has declined sharply. Phil Mobley, national director of office analytics at CoStar, estimated that the gap between office-using employment and previously expected demand could be as much as 400 million square feet. As supply continues to come online, vacancy rates will continue to climb over the next three years with negative absorption levels higher than during the Great Financial Recession.

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Originally published on April 10, 2023 by Miles Haladay for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

America faces a multipronged real estate crisis. We have a stubborn residential housing shortage, high office vacancy rates, and flight from many downtown hubs that is killing off businesses servicing those areas. In West Coast cities like San Francisco, it’s been dubbed the “donut effect,” with workers moving farther away from the urban core.

We need to build 3.8 million more housing units in the United States to keep up with household formation rates – and we’re very behind. Construction rates need to double from now to 2030 to bring us up to speed. Climate change only raises the stakes: to stave off the worst-case climate scenario and double construction output in the next seven years, we need to slash per-project emissions by at least 70%.

Converting office towers into housing could solve multiple problems at once: increase available housing; revitalize downtowns and their property tax base; all while attracting populations to city centers where green living is easier.

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Originally published on March 6, 2023, by Eliza Theiss for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Three years after the COVID-19 pandemic upended the office sector, it remains in flux. While many businesses have fully committed to hybrid and remote work arrangements, others are becoming more adamant about getting employees back into the office. And, according to the CommercialEdge U.S. office market analysis, there will be even greater uncertainty and upheaval as the industry transitions to a new status quo.

In 2023, higher interest rates are anticipated to negatively affect both the new supply pipeline and transactional activity; while some buildings will be constructed in desirable sites, many other projects will be postponed or abandoned entirely. Moreover, in addition to fewer office transactions, higher rates will also result in reduced property prices for those that do trade.

At the same time, tenants’ flight to quality is also expected to continue in 2023. Businesses that want workers in the office more frequently are looking for high-quality amenitized space to tempt workers to come in, which can mean embracing smaller footprints in prime locations.

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Originally published on February 27, 2023, by Janet Pogue McLaurin AIA, FIIDA, NCIDQ , LEED AP for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Office workers around the globe scrambled to suddenly work from home in March 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the global pandemic raged from weeks to months to years, we adapted to virtual meetings and new ways of working. It fundamentally changed how we work and our expectations of the office. Over a period of time, Gensler surveyed 2,000 U.S. workers as they were returning to the office to understand the new role of the office, what’s working and not, and what’s missing in the work experience.

The Role of the Office has Shifted

Throughout the pandemic, we conducted 11 workplace research surveys — six alone in the U.S. — to capture how the pandemic has shaped the workplace experience. During this time, the top-ranked reason cited by employees to return to the office was “working in-person with my team/colleagues” — consistent across countries, generations, and industries. In our latest research, “to focus on my work” emerged as the top-ranked reason workers say they are coming into the office. Work activities based in the physical space, such as access to technology, scheduled meetings, and access to specific spaces, materials, and resources, also rise to the top.

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Originally published on December 19, 2022 by Eliza Theiss for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Although many in the industry had assumed that the office market would stabilize in 2022 –  and perhaps even begin to recover pandemic losses – this stabilization did not occur. Rather, wider economic changes; repeated interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve; the further establishment of work-from-home and remote office arrangements; and increasing numbers of office footprint reductions by businesses caused vacancy rates to continue to rise throughout the year. At the same time, rent growth remained patchy.

Listing Rates Show Significant Growth, But Only in Select Markets

Large segments of the office-using sector have adopted remote and hybrid work (at least in part) since the start of the pandemic. Accordingly, the demand for offices has decreased in most markets. In addition, many businesses have also reduced the size of their offices, while others have firm intentions to do the same in the near future. As a result, the national vacancy rate – which reached 16.3% in November – was 150 basis points (bps) higher than it was in October 2021, according to the most recent CommercialEdge report.

In fact, during the last 12 months, vacancy rates increased in 86 of the 120 areas monitored by CommercialEdge, including 22 of the 25 most significant markets. Specifically, the leading U.S. office markets with the largest vacancy rate increases were San Francisco (+390 bps) and Portland, Oregon (+400 bps).

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Originally published by Mark Heschmeyer on December 12, 2022, for CoStar News.

Any increase in a key measure of office demand in 2023 isn’t likely to occur, according to the latest projections from the commercial real estate association, NAIOP.

The difference between tenant move-ins and move-outs of leased space could continue to slow into 2024 as net absorption is hampered by economic uncertainty, the trade group said.

The national office market absorbed 6.6 million square feet during the second and third quarters of 2022, but the vacancy rate continued its climb to 17.1%, the highest level since the third quarter of 1993, according to the NAIOP's "Office Space Demand Forecast" for the fourth quarter of 2022 published by the NAIOP Research Foundation.

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Originally published on October 24, 2022, by Konrad Putzier for The Wall Street Journal.

Hybrid work schedules for most companies mean splitting time between remote work and time in the office. For the startup Frontier Talent Inc., it also means rotating through the same office space with another company.

Frontier employees head to their San Francisco office on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. After two of those days, they pack their laptops, clean up their desks and throw away any trash so their work area will be clean when another company moves in for its turn using the space.

Originally published in the Fall 2022 Issue of NAIOP's Development Magazine by Plabo J. Quintana.

The modern office is in the midst of a transformation. With most knowledge workers opting out of the traditional five-day-in-office workweek in search of flexibility and hybrid work solutions, the shape, size and focus of the future office is rapidly changing.

CBRE’s Spring 2022 Office Occupier Sentiment Survey provides a snapshot of these changes and their impact on commercial real estate. In a survey of 185 tenant companies, 39% of respondents said they plan to expand their office portfolios over the next three years. That’s up from 29% the previous year, suggesting that fears about the “death of the office” have been exaggerated. Fifty-two percent said they plan to reduce their office space holdings, but only 8% say they will become fully remote. Seventy-three percent — the vast majority — plan to support hybrid work. 

As of now, office occupancy is slowly beginning to rebound from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic. NAIOP’s Office Space Demand Forecast, released in May, reports that vacancy rates have increased across the country for 10 straight quarters. However, Class A buildings with amenities designed to attract skilled workers are helping to stabilize the office market. Net office space absorption in the remaining three quarters of 2022 is forecasted to reach 46.9 million square feet and total 47.3 million square feet for all of 2023.

By Linda Strowbridge 

Growing convergence between the retail and distribution sectors could have profound impacts on the commercial real estate industry. As retail and industrial clients adjust to shifts in consumer behavior and the overall economy, CRE professionals will be challenged to change their thinking about how to truly serve their clients. That challenge, however, could also produce innovative real estate products and new opportunities. That’s according to Dustin C. Read, Ph.D./J.D., author of the NAIOP Research Foundation report, “New Places and New Spaces for E-commerce Distribution: Three Strategies Bringing Industrial and Retail Real Estate Closer Together.”

What was the most interesting or significant discovery you made while researching the paper?

Read: It was probably that some of the most important phenomena related to the convergence of industrial and retail real estate were the ones that received the least attention. In the popular press, there has been lots of discussion of the conversion of obsolete retail buildings into distribution facilities. When you really drill down – even though there have been hundreds of articles written on that topic – the number of [these retail-to-distribution conversion] projects that have been successful in the U.S. is relatively small. I was surprised to see when you really start pulling back layers of the onion, there is more talk about it than there is actual execution of those types of projects.

The amalgamation of all the obstacles a developer must overcome to do one of these projects successfully is significant. The project has to be acquired at a relatively low purchase price and have the right access to infrastructure. It must be in a market that has good industrial characteristics and an area where the municipality has given up on the site as a viable retail location and is willing to rezone it for potential distribution. When all those things come together at the same time, there are opportunities for conversion. But often, they don’t all come together.

By Trey Barrineau

Industrial properties are often built near neighborhoods, but that isn’t always popular with the residents, who have legitimate concerns about noise, traffic and pollution from the increased volume of trucks and vans.

A recent NAIOP online panel discussion examined how developers can work with local communities to address these worries through outreach and engagement, as well as with design and technological innovations.

“Education is key to establishing that relationship early on,” said Sven Tustin, executive vice president with Conor Commercial, who moderated the panel. “The developer has to listen to concerns. Residents look at a site plan that shows 200 dock doors, and they assume that there will be 200 trucks coming in and out 24/7.”

Amid lower pressure on global supply chains, increasing inventory carrying costs, a cooling economy and a decrease in the rate of e-commerce expansion, retailers and logistics firms have slowed the rate at which they acquired additional industrial space this year. Net absorption of industrial space in the first two quarters of 2022 was 151.2 million square feet, down sharply from 2021’s record pace but still notably higher than in prior years (see Figure 2). The authors expect the still-hot industrial market to cool, and they forecast that the net absorption rate will continue to decline until it returns to the pre-pandemic trend. Total net absorption of industrial space in the second half of 2022 is forecast to be 112.4 million square feet, and full-year absorption in 2023 is forecast to be 209.4 million square feet (see Figure 1 for quarterly projections).

The Industrial Market

Supply chain congestion eased during the first half of 2022, as illustrated by the decline in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index from 4.35 in December 2021 to 2.41 in June 2022. As a result, retailers and logistics firms have shown less interest in leasing or buying industrial space before it is needed, a trend that contributed to higher absorption in 2021. Amazon’s decision to substantially scale back its expansion plans is the most prominent example of this shift in demand for industrial space. Nonetheless, smaller e-commerce firms, and even traditional retailers, continue to lease more distribution space despite slowing e-commerce growth as more consumers return to shopping at bricks-and-mortar retail. Industrial vacancy rates remain historically low as the ability to supply new space continues to face physical and political limitations in land-constrained markets. These low vacancy rates continue to cause asking rents, and ultimately transaction prices, to increase. Premium prices are being paid for properties with soon-to-expire leases and even vacancies as they allow owners to lease out more space at record-high market rates.

By Marie Ruff

Since the start of the pandemic, sleepy small towns and suburbs have taken on new luster as people have migrated en masse from the urban core, drawn by the lower cost of living and with the flexibility afforded by increased remote work options. Will this be the new normal, or will people move back to the major metropolises once we put the pandemic behind us? What does it mean for office real estate in the short and long term?

In a recent NAIOP webinar, experts from Marcus & Millichap shared their research and insights into how these trends are shaping the investment landscape for urban and suburban office spaces. They began by examining the broader economic context underlying the urban to suburban shift before discussing recent office sale trends, the impact of demographics and what’s ahead for this sector.

U.S. Office Supply and Demand Trends

Office vacancy rates have been elevated since the onset of the pandemic; however, office rate absorption has also been positive for five consecutive quarters. “Although it is soft, it is not as soft as some people perceive,” said John Chang, senior vice president, national director research services, Marcus & Millichap. There was only a brief period of net negative office space absorption in 2020 and have been making a recovery, albeit sometimes slowly, since.

TOP FIVE US METROS FOR LIFE SCIENCES IN 2022

By Ioana Ginsac

Growth in the life sciences sector has driven demand in recent years for both commercial real estate space and labor to accommodate this specialized sector. A new study by commercial real estate platform CommercialCafe set out to identify the best metros for life science companies in 2022 and assessed more than 40 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in terms of regional talent pool and workforce; accessibility of local office markets; the degree of availability of existing dedicated property; as well as the state of the local pipeline aiming to expand local life sciences capacity.

Boston took the number one spot on the list, with San Francisco in second place, then San Diego third, New York fourth, and Washington, D.C., rounding out the top five.

A longtime “flagship market” for life sciences, the Boston metropolitan area remains a leader in the sector. The MSA stood out for several key indices scored in the ranking: Boston boasts the largest labor pool among the metros analyzed, as well as the largest life sciences real estate market — nearly 25 million square feet of existing dedicated property, of which just under 14 million square feet was LEED-certified space. What’s more, with an additional 23.8 million square feet of new life sciences developments in the pipeline — under construction, as well as in the planned and prospective stages — Boston seems firmly placed at number one for the foreseeable future.