Originally published on January 15, 2025, by Toby Burke for NAIOP.

State lawmakers have started to return to their respective state capitols to begin the lawmaking process following the 2024 election. While the election resulted in a few political control shifts in some chambers between Republicans and Democrats, the “status quo” was essentially maintained according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. This would imply a more predictable and business-as-usual session within state capitols on the issues with one exception: the return of President-elect Trump to Washington, D.C.

Trump and his allies on Capitol Hill have pledged to cut government bureaucracy, lower government spending, and restructure the federal government. This initiative includes less federal oversight of public health and education, including the closure of the U.S. Department of Education, a reduced federal workforce, and ending many environmental regulations enacted under the Biden Administration. The unofficial “Department of Government Efficiency,” led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has been tasked with identifying opportunities to achieve this through either executive order or federal legislation.

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Originally published on November 20, 2024 by Toby Burke for NAIOP.

The 2024 U.S. election has ended with President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House and Republicans securing majorities in both legislative chambers on Capitol Hill. The national media may be focused on the consequences for the balance of power in Washington, D.C., but it’s important to look at the down-ballot races for state and local offices and ballot initiatives that impact the commercial real estate industry.

While Republicans obtained the trifecta of government at the federal level, the “status quo” was primarily maintained between the two political parties at the state legislative level, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Republicans did slightly better, but both political parties are claiming election-night victories and successes. Republicans increased their number of overall seats to 55.25% from 55% of the 7,386 state legislative seats.

Republican State Legislative Committee President Dee Duncan issued a memo outlining their successes through investing early and improving Republican turnout, particularly early and absentee voting, in maintaining control of a majority of the state legislatures. To mention a few battleground states, Republicans flipped control of the Michigan House and defended their majorities in both chambers of the Wisconsin legislature. In Nevada, Republicans gained enough seats to break Democrat supermajorities in both the Senate and Assembly that will now prevent the legislature from overriding Republican Governor Joe Lombardo’s vetoes.

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Originally published on November 6,2024 by Eric Schmutz for NAIOP.

Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s presidential election makes him the first candidate in over a century to reclaim the White House after losing a re-election bid, and we expect his second term to have a significant impact on federal tax policy. 

Republican tax priorities also received a boost on Tuesday when, for the first time since 2018, they regained control of the Senate after picking up seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana and overcoming challenges in Florida, Nebraska and Texas. With races yet to be called in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, the only questions left are the size of the Republican majority and the identity of the next Senate majority leader. 

The first of those questions could take a few days to answer, but Senate Republicans are scheduled to meet next week to choose their next leader. At the time of this writing, Senators John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn, (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) are the declared candidates, but because the race is determined by a secret ballot, it is too early to predict a front runner. 

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Originally published on October 1, 2024, by the IRS.

The Internal Revenue Service announced today tax relief for individuals and businesses in the entire state of North Carolina that were affected by Hurricane Helene that began on Sept. 25, 2024. These taxpayers now have until May 1, 2025, to file various federal individual and business tax returns and make tax payments.

Following the disaster declaration issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), individuals and households that reside or have a business in the entire state qualify for tax relief.

Affected taxpayers with returns and payments with due dates postponed until Feb. 3, 2025, due to Tropical Storm Debby in North Carolina (NC-2024-07) will also now have until May 1, 2025, to file and/or pay.

Originally published on September 26, 2024, by Morris Davis, Ph.D. for NAIOP.

Citing progress on inflation and the balance of risks, last week the Federal Reserve announced rate cuts of 0.5%, to 4.75% to 5%. Can we expect additional cuts from the Federal Reserve and when, and how would these cuts impact commercial real estate markets?

How deep are the cuts? 

According to data from the Fed, on Sept. 20, Treasuries were trading as follows: 

• 1-month Treasury           4.87%
• 3-month Treasury           4.75%
• 6-month Treasury           4.43%
• 1-year Treasury                3.92%

After some math, we can use these yields to compute market participants’ beliefs on future Fed actions as follows:  25bp rate cut on Nov. 7, 50bp rate cut on Dec 18. and 75bp rate cut on March 19. In sum, markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates by 1.5% over the next 6 months, and if that occurs, the Fed funds rate will fall from 4.75% to 3.25%.

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Originally published on October 16, 2024 by Toby Burke for NAIOP.

U.S. citizens will go to the polls on Nov. 5 to cast their votes in the 2024 election at each level of government. The outcome of this election may have an impact on the policies affecting commercial real estate, the economy, communities and families. At the state level, 44 states will hold elections for representatives within their state legislature. The significance of the outcomes of these state elections cannot be overlooked in setting policy for the commercial real estate industry.

There are 5,808 state legislative seats up for election in November, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL). This equates to 78% of all legislative seats. Therefore, these elections should not be overlooked in setting state policies that Impact the commercial real estate industry.

According to the NCSL, Republicans currently hold 4,023 out 7,386 legislative seats and control 58 of 98 legislative chambers. Republicans control both legislative chambers in 29 states compared to 19 states by the Democrats with a divided legislature. There are also states where one political party holds both legislative chambers and governorship, also known as the trifecta of government. The pre-election trifecta is 23 Republicans and 16 Democrats with 10 divided state governments.

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Originally published on September 18, 2024, by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP.

On Sept. 10, in a speech given at the Brookings Institution of Washington, D.C., the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr announced that the central bank would be revising and re-proposing its bank-capital rules proposal commonly referred to as their Basel III Endgame Regulation. The regulation, first proposed in 2023, would have mandated a dramatic hike in the capital requirements on major banks and garnered intense criticism from the private sector, including from NAIOP and its real estate allies, who raised concerns about the negative impact the new regulations would have on the availability of credit for commercial real estate. In a clear victory for NAIOP and real estate, Barr made clear in his speech that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would be scaling back the regulation.

Basel III is a reference to the Basel Accords, an international standardized approach to banking regulation focused on levels of bank capital and other requirements designed to enhance the safety and soundness of global financial institutions. The Basel Committee on Bank Supervision administers the accords, and Basel III, which originated in response to the great financial crisis of 2007-2008, is the third phase of Basel. The “Basel III Endgame Regulation” is the term used to refer to the final regulation of that phase. In July 2023, the Fed, along with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, jointly proposed the Basel III Endgame regulations for public comment, with the intent of issuing these in final form by mid-year 2024.

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Originally published on August 13, 2024 by Brielle Scott for NAIOP.

From John Oliver to CNN to the Wall Street Journal, everyone seems to be talking about PFAS. PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) are a family of manmade chemicals that have been used in manufacturing everything from apparel to cosmetics to food packaging.

In April, the federal government issued the first enforceable national PFAS regulations, and rather than just a problem for manufacturers of products with PFAS, this is now an immediate issue for owners and developers of all types of commercial real estate, and anywhere where PFAS may have been created or used.

In a recent NAIOP webinar, experts from Arnall Golden Gregory LLP, including Beth Davis, partner, and co-chair of the firm’s environmental practice; Morgan Harrison, litigation partner; and David Marmins, litigation partner; joined Patrick McKeown, business development manager for ECT2, a provider of solutions for removing difficult-to-treat contaminants from water and vapor, to discuss how developers can prepare for PFAS regulations.

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Laura Boorman Truesdale
Mary Katherine H. Stukes
Moore & Van Allen

Early preview of the article to be featured in the NAIOP Development Magazine this fall.

If you have read the news lately, you have likely heard about “forever chemicals” and the dangers they may pose. While you might be familiar with the potential impacts on human health and the environment, the implications of these chemicals on the commercial real estate industry may be less obvious.

The term “forever chemicals” refers generally to per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances, also known as “PFAS.” PFAS are man-made and have been manufactured in the United States for over 70 years. They are used in a wide array of consumer and commercial products and processes across industry sectors and have achieved popularity and success in large part because of their unique resilience to degradation. While the chemical makeup of PFAS has made them critical to certain industries, it has also allowed them to persist widely in the environment (and potentially in humans and animals).

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Originally published on July 17, 2024 by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP.

Just prior to leaving for this week’s congressional recess, and before the tragic events of this weekend which unfortunately served to highlight our current political polarization, Republicans and Democrats in Congress worked together to introduce bipartisan legislation furthering one of NAIOP’s top legislative priorities. The Revitalizing Downtowns and Main Streets Act (H.R. 9002) was introduced last Thursday with 12 original cosponsors: six Republicans and six Democrats, all members of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee.

H.R. 9002 would incentivize the conversion of underutilized commercial properties to residential use, helping to address the historically high office vacancy levels resulting from hybrid work patterns that arose during the COVID-19 pandemic and which have become a persistent feature of our labor markets. At the same time, the adaptive reuse of these structures would help alleviate the lack of housing supply, including of affordable housing, in many localities. The welcome show of bipartisanship underscores the importance of the issue, which NAIOP has made a priority since last year.

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Originally published on July 10, 2024, by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP.

The Supreme Court has certainly garnered its share of attention for several of its rulings this last term, but none is likely to have more of an impact on business, including commercial real estate, than its opinion in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, issued on June 28. In that case, the Court overturned a 40-year legal standard it had first established in 1984 in Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., which stated that courts would defer to federal agency determinations on policy matters if the relevant statutory language was ambiguous.

The so-called “Chevron doctrine,” or “Chevron deference,” as the practice became known, began initially as a practical means of allowing federal regulatory agencies tasked with implementing aspects of legislation that called for scientific or highly technical determinations. It came into play when an agency determined that an area or matter not explicitly authorized in a statute was within the reach of their regulatory authority, as long as their determination was reasonable. Thus, if Congress passed a law requiring the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate a certain broad class of chemicals, then the EPA could not be challenged for including substances that the agency stated it reasonably believed were covered by the statute.

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A bill that NAIOP and its members spearheaded was introduced today in the U.S. House of Representatives. The “Revitalizing Downtowns and Main Streets Act” establishes a new 20% tax credit to convert many underutilized or vacant commercial properties to residential use.

The bipartisan bill is sponsored by U.S. Representatives Mike Carey (R-OH) and Jimmy Gomez (D-CA).

“This legislation will spur the conversion of vacant spaces that can stimulate local economies and begin to address the housing crisis in communities across the U.S.,” said Marc Selvitelli, CAE, president and CEO of NAIOP. “This important bill allows Congress to begin rectifying many of the ripple effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that are still affecting the lives of Americans and impacting local tax revenues.”

The proposed legislation includes:

Originally published on June 19, 2024, by Toby Burke for NAIOP.

Members from the three NAIOP chapters in North Carolina traveled to Raleigh last week for their legislative advocacy day within the state capitol. The two-day event provided an important opportunity for attendees to collaborate on the issues facing commercial real estate and advance the industry’s interests with state lawmakers.

NAIOP’s state card on the economic impact of commercial real estate on the national and state economies reflects the industry’s powerful contribution to North Carolina’s economy. The commercial real estate industry in North Carolina is the sixth highest-ranking state in the United States for overall contributions to the state’s gross domestic product with $44.1 billion and 312,000 jobs created and supported in 2023. NAIOP members leveraged this important information in meetings with lawmakers as part of their three legislative priorities – economic development, transportation and infrastructure, and regulatory reform.

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Originally published on April 17, 2024, by Eric Schmutz for NAIOP.

With national and swing state polls indicating support between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is fairly even, casual political observers could be forgiven for not realizing that House and Senate races are also tight; there could be a historic switch in the House and Senate majorities this November. 

In the Senate, where Democrats currently hold a two-seat majority at 51-49, Republicans are projected to pick up the West Virginia seat from retiring Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, which would make it a 50-50 Senate, with the next vice president casting the deciding vote. Adding to their challenges, two Democratic senators in states projected to go for Trump (Ohio and Montana) are likely to face serious challenges in their reelection efforts.

In Ohio, three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown will face Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Polls taken before the primary favored
Brown; however, Biden lost the state in 2020, and has trailed in state polling by more than 10 percentage points. 

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Originally published on April 3, 2024, by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP.

On March 11, President Joe Biden submitted his FY 2025 Proposed Budget to Congress. Like the budget he proposed last year around this time, it contains a number of tax policy changes that, if enacted, would have an outsized negative impact on the commercial real estate industry. But unlike last year’s proposal, this is an election-year proposal intended as the administration’s statement on the economic agenda Biden will pursue if re-elected this November.

That does not mean, however, that this budget proposal should be seen as simply a rhetorical document with little chance in a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Unlike prior year budget proposals, this one is a setup for an unavoidable tax debate in 2025, when many of the tax provisions enacted during the Trump administration in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 will expire. As a result, many lower and middle-income Americans, not just businesses, will face tax increases if Congress fails to renew a number of provisions. Democrats and Republicans will be forced to negotiate and pass tax legislation because both sides of the political aisle will need it.

If reelected, Biden will of course claim that the voters agree with his economic vision, and he will have enormous negotiating leverage in the tax debate because of the scheduled tax increases that will go into effect.

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Originally published on March 26, 2024, by NAIOP.

Six months into the 2024 fiscal year, Congress passed a final $1.2 trillion funding agreement and President Joe Biden signed it into law. The package was approved by the House (286-134) and Senate (74-24) before going to the White House on Saturday. It will keep the federal government operating until Sept. 30, 2024.

On the eve of the spring Congressional recess, Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) officially resigned from the House and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) announced that his resignation will be effective April 19. These developments will leave House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) with a slim 217-213 majority, but that may not be the worst of his problems, as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) filed a motion to “vacate the chair” (remove the speaker) just before she left town. If the Democratic minority supports Greene’s motion, Johnson will have to secure unanimous opposition from the rest of the Republican Conference to save his leadership role.

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Another successful trip to DC for the NAIOP chapter leadership and legislative retreat. Delegates from all three NAIOP NC chapters spent the week learning about NAIOP’s 2024 strategic plan and then went to work on Capitol Hill today and advocated to our Representatives in Congress about the importance and impact of CRE and the need for pro-development policies such as Adaptive Reuse. 

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Originally published on January 17, 2024, by Eric Schmutz for NAIOP.

Iowa Republicans held their 2024 presidential caucus on Jan. 15, and as expected, former President Donald Trump won with 51% of the votes cast. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis placed second with 21.2% and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley placed third with 19.1%. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, after receiving 7.7% of the votes, suspended his campaign and promptly endorsed Trump. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson received less than 200 votes and also suspended his campaign, but has yet to endorse another candidate. 

The current delegate totals among the candidates stand at Trump with 20 delegates, DeSantis with 8, Haley with 7, and Ramaswamy with 3. A candidate needs 1,215 delegates to win the party’s nomination. The action now moves to New Hampshire where Republicans will hold their first presidential primary on Jan. 23, and then to South Carolina where the first Democratic primary will be on Feb. 3 and the Republican primary will be on Feb. 24.

Unless a major shakeup occurs, we will likely see a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and Trump. If so, it will be the first time a former president has run as his party’s nominee for a non-consecutive presidential term since 1892, when former President Grover Cleveland (D) defeated incumbent President Benjamin Harrison (R) in a rematch.

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Originally published on December 20, 2023, by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP.

As 2023 comes to a close and we look ahead to the challenges facing commercial real estate in 2024, it is clear that persistent advocacy on the public policy front will be more important than ever to ensure that the interests of NAIOP members are protected. This is true of course at the state and local level, but it is at the federal level, where government gridlock has been most on display, that maintaining our strong advocacy will be critical.

As some media reports have already noted, this Congress will be one of the most unproductive since the Great Depression. Just 20 pieces of legislation have been signed into law. Narrow partisan majorities in the House and Senate, and continued dysfunction in the House Republican conference in particular, have made advancing legislation in this Congress an even bigger challenge than usual. For three weeks, Congress lost valuable time while the drama surrounding Speaker Kevin McCarthy unfolded, with Republicans finally settling on the fourth candidate to vie for the spot. While the House did manage to pass debt-ceiling increases and government funding measures that were “must-pass” bills, the only other bills that Congress seemed able to digest were those renaming post offices and those with no opposition at all.

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Originally published on January 3, 2024, by Toby Burke for NAIOP.

The political battle over the presidency and the control of both chambers on Capitol Hill is expected to garner most of the attention of the national media this year. While the outcome of these campaigns will have significant implications on policy debates at the national level, they should not overshadow or minimize the important political races for control of state legislatures and gubernatorial offices across the country. The outcome of these more grassroots races in comparison to control of state capitols may be more reflective of the policies of importance to the American people.

Republican governors currently hold a 27 to 23 advantage over Democrats heading into 11 gubernatorial elections later this year. The 11 states holding gubernatorial races in the fall are Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia. Except for Montana, North Dakota (to be determined), Utah, and Vermont, the incumbents are either term-limited, not seeking re-election or seeking another elected office. North Carolina is expected to be one of the most competitive this year because Democrat Rory Cooper is unable to seek reelection based on term limits and the recent Republican successes for statewide and presidential offices.

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