Originally published on July 27, 2021, by Ester Fung for the Wall Street Journal.

U.S. commercial real-estate sales this year have rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, fueled by historically low-interest rates and the belief of many investors that the worst of Covid-19 is over.

But the commercial-property sales landscape looks a lot different than it did before the health crisis hit in early 2020. Cities including New York and San Francisco have fallen in favor as have property types such as downtown office buildings and convention hotels.

Meanwhile, Sunbelt cities posted record sales and investors flocked to property types that performed well during the pandemic, including amenity-packed apartment buildings, warehouses and office buildings that cater to pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. “There is a move to both new property types and new markets,” said a report recently released by data and research firm Real Capital Analytics.

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Originally published  by Scott Murdoch for the Summer 2021 Issue of NAIOP Development Magazine.

The pandemic forced the industry to adapt quickly to meet soaring demand.

While grocery e-commerce was growing prior to the pandemic, the sector saw staggering market penetration over the course of 2020 and beyond. Concerned about safely accessing food, consumers across all demographics turned to online grocery shopping as a convenient, safe option.

A survey by LEK indicated that food e-commerce made up 3%-4% of total grocery retail sales before the pandemic and that overall penetration would reach 15%-20% by 2025. But in its February 2021 Online Grocery Report, Business Insider projected online grocery adoption will reach 55% in the U.S. by the end of 2024. Consumers have clearly grown accustomed to the convenience and safety of grocery e-commerce. 

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Originally published on August 3, 2021, for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

The bipartisan group of senators negotiating infrastructure legislation finalized legislative text over the weekend and officially introduced the measure Sunday night. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has stated he plans to hold a vote on the bill later this week.

Senators Rob Portman (R-OH) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) officially introduced the 2,702-page Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, emphasizing the bipartisan nature of both the process and the legislation. The bill includes $550 billion in new spending and provides more than $1 trillion in total spending on roads, bridges, ports, and broadband. The package also includes spending on Biden administration priorities, including electric vehicle charging stations, climate resilience, and water infrastructure.

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Originally published on July 21, 2021, for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Owners and developers of commercial real estate recognize that obtaining local building permits is an essential and fundamental requirement for the development and improvement of their properties. The processes for obtaining these permits vary by municipality and state. These variations lead to uncertainties and delays in projects moving forward, which impacts the development project’s financing, cost and the retention of contractors, construction equipment and other materials.

Many state legislatures have taken action to address this by bringing more predictability, transparency, and accountability to the local permitting processes within their state. This was the case in Florida and Georgia following effective advocacy by our local NAIOP chapters. Our members were increasingly concerned with the negative effect on development with the inconsistent application of permit requirements and fees by local governing entities.

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Originally published on July 23, 2021, by Roger McCarron for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

The COVID-19 pandemic, and the waves of lockdowns and business interruptions it prompted, affected global supply chains in virtually every industry — and construction is no exception. Due to widespread shortages of building materials, and pent-up demand from projects that were delayed or postponed during the pandemic, costs for materials including lumber, copper, steel, aluminum and vinyl skyrocketed. According to the National Association of Homebuilders, lumber prices spiked to a more than 300% year-over-year increase in May. While prices have since come down, they remain higher than historical averages and data suggest that demand for construction materials is approaching pre-pandemic levels.

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Originally published on July 27, 2021, for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Republican and Democratic Senators negotiating infrastructure legislation signaled they were close to a final deal, with lead negotiator Rob Portman (R-OH) saying they were “90% of the way there.” The coming days are critical after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) forced a procedural vote last week on moving a bill forward despite there being no legislative language available. The vote failed to garner the 60 votes needed for passage of the procedural motion, with the lead negotiators arguing they hoped to have any remaining issues resolved and legislative text drafted this week.

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Tournament Sponsorships Now Available!

NAIOP Charlotte & CRCBR are hosting their always sold-out industry golf tournament on Monday, September 27!

Get your company name in front of developers and brokers and catch up with your industry peers. For one price, your company will be recognized as a sponsor during this two-flight tournament! Make plans to join us as a sponsor for this fun and valuable event! 

Sponsorship opportunities are available on a first-come, first-served basis.

At this time, player spots are only available through sponsorship of the tournament.

To become a sponsor, click the button below and send the completed form to Sandy Hower at [email protected].

Become A Sponsor

Originally published on July 9, 2021 by Shawn Moura Ph.D. for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

In June, NAIOP conducted its eighth survey of its U.S. members on the impacts of COVID-19. Since April 2020, the association has examined the pandemic’s effects on commercial real estate and how firms have responded. Most American adults are vaccinated, and daily coronavirus case counts have plummeted in the five months since the previous survey. This has allowed a widespread return of customers to restaurants and retailers, and most observers now expect that office occupancy rates will rebound in the fall when schools re-open for in-person instruction. 

Respondents to the survey report a strong recovery in retail property rent collections, as well as retail property acquisitions and development activity, alongside continued favorable trends for industrial, office and multifamily properties. Less than one-quarter of respondents now expect the pandemic to significantly affect their business operations for more than a year, and respondents are much more optimistic about employment within their own firms than in previous surveys. 

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Originally published on June 29, 2021, by Zach Bowyer, Brian Chandler and Bryan Lockard for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted a nearly 12-year growth cycle for the senior housing market, causing a drop in valuations to an eight-year low. Stabilized occupancy rates also fell to record lows due to infections, mandated holds on new resident admissions, safety concerns, and isolation fears. Rents, however, continued to rise, despite significant occupancy losses.

In addition, following four consecutive years of year-over-year decline, total price per bed for nursing homes increased by nearly 22 percent in the first quarter of 2021, marking the second-highest price point for nursing homes ever recorded, according to JLL Valuation Advisory’s recently released Seniors Housing & Care – Investor Survey and Trends Outlook. 

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Originally published on July 7, 2021, by Toby Burke for NAIOP's blog.

NAIOP of North Carolina recently hosted the first in-person Day at the State Capitol since the outbreak of the pandemic. It provided NAIOP members from the Charlotte, North Carolina Piedmont Triad, and Raleigh-Durham chapters with the opportunity to advocate for effective policies that advance commercial real estate development within the state. This year’s legislative priorities focused on three areas: economic development, tax reform, and regulatory reform.

Regulatory reform emerged as a dominant issue during NAIOP of North Carolina’s meetings with state legislators. In particular, NAIOP members advocated for strengthening the state’s brownfield program within the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality. There is growing concern within the commercial real estate community that the administrative delays and inconsistencies with the current program are discouraging the redevelopment of dormant or underutilized contaminated properties.

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Originally published on July 13, 2021, for the NAIOP E-Newsletter.

The Senate returns this week from its July Fourth recess to continue work on an infrastructure package supported by President Joe Biden and a bipartisan group of 22 senators, which the White House hopes will garner the needed 60 votes in the Senate needed for passage. At the same time, House and Senate Democrats are working on a parallel track to develop a budget bill that will include Democratic leadership priorities and that can pass the Senate with only Democratic votes.

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We are proud to introduce our new association members! The following is a list of individuals who have joined NAIOP Charlotte since March 12, 2021:

• Brian Taylor, Miller-Valentine Group
• Caleb Gass, Heritage BlueFire
• Chandler Markey, Sands Investment Group
• Philip Elliott, Consulting Services Incorporated
• Elsa Simaan, Stewart Title Guaranty Company
• Greg Hartley, Acro Development Services, PLLC
• HeatherMucci, Novus Architects
• John Moscati, GTA Associates, Inc.
• Philip Potter, Whiting-Turner Contracting Company
• Allen McDowell, Bohler Engineering
• AnthonyZook, Bohler Engineering

Originally published by Ron Derven for NAIOP's Development Magazine Summer 2021 Issue.

The post-pandemic period could see a lot of innovation and experimentation in commercial real estate.

COVID-19 delivered a gut punch like no other to the commercial real estate industry last year, with transactions in the second quarter of 2020 plummeting approximately 40% over the same period in 2019.

By the fourth quarter of 2020, however, sales activity had nearly recovered, according to John Chang, director of research with Marcus & Millichap.

“Investors adapted to the new climate and devised new solutions to address the many obstacles to getting business done,” Chang said. “Barring a new, severe and deadly outbreak, COVID-related challenges ahead will likely be speed bumps for the commercial real estate industry rather than roadblocks.”

Originally published on June 29, 2021 for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Last week President Joe Biden announced agreement with a bipartisan group of senators, led by Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Rob Portman (R-OH), on a bipartisan infrastructure plan. The infrastructure deal would total $1.2 trillion over eight years, with approximately $579 billion in physical infrastructure, including roads, bridges, transit, water and sewer projects, and upgrades to the electrical grid. However, the nascent deal almost unraveled when Biden, in an effort to appease Democratic progressives, promised not to sign the legislation unless it was simultaneously accompanied by a reconciliation bill incorporating elements of his other domestic spending priorities.

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Originally published on May 2021 by Hany Guirguis, Ph.D., Manhattan College and Michael J. Seiler, DBA, William & Mary and the University of Cambridge.

Office Space Absorption Projected to Stabilize by Mid-2022

The U.S. economy is experiencing a strong rebound from the COVID-19-induced recession, resulting in job growth in office-using sectors. However, tenant-safety concerns remain a drag on office leasing. The U.S. office market posted continued declines in net absorption in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-26.7 million square feet) and the first quarter of 2021 (-34.8 million square feet). Nonetheless, as coronavirus safety concerns abate and the economy continues to expand, negative net absorption is forecast to moderate over the next two quarters, with a return to positive absorption in the fourth quarter of this year (Figure 1). Quarterly net absorption in 2022 is expected to average 11.7 million square feet, in line with the 2015-2019 quarterly average of 11.6 million square feet.

At the time of this writing, more than half of eligible Americans have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccination, and more than one-third are fully vaccinated. As vaccination rates increase and new coronavirus cases decline, more employers are re-opening their offices. However, a widespread return to the office will likely depend on the return of K-12 schools to in-person instruction. Many schools currently rely on a full- or part-time remote schedule, requiring parents of young children to either stay home or seek alternative childcare arrangements. With vaccination rates on the rise, most schools are now planning to resume full in-person instruction in the fall. As safety concerns about returning to the office recede and schools reopen, office absorption should begin to respond to the current upswing in economic growth.

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The following statement was issued by REBIC on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.

Last night the “Plan Policy” section of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan passed the Charlotte City Council by a 6-5 vote. This outcome had been widely expected for several weeks. In the end, REBIC took the position that moving ahead to the more difficult challenges, such as the debate over the “Implementation Strategy” and “Manuals and Metrics” sections, as well as the Place Type mapping and ultimately the Unified Development Ordinance (UDO) was in the best interests of all parties. It was evident that members of City Council had withdrawn to their respective corners and that any further compromise was not possible.

Following an introduction, the real estate industry faced some big hurdles:

• Removal of Mandatory impact fees
• Removal of Mandatory inclusionary zoning
• Removal of Mandatory Community Benefit Agreements
• A broken process set up to accept comments but one that provided little feedback in return
• A City Council (with the exception of a few members) with little knowledge of the Plan
• A tight, artificial timeline with a proposed vote on the entire document by April 26th

After last night here’s where we are:

Originally published on June 22, 2021, for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

In the wake of failed infrastructure discussions between the White House and Senate Republican leadership, represented by Senator Shelley Moore-Capito (R-WV), the focus of attention has turned to the second group of Senators attempting to forge a bipartisan deal. The effort, led by Senators Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Rob Portman (R-OH), gained momentum last week with the endorsement of 21 senators, including 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats. A draft framework of the plan leaked to the press last week, but the particulars of the plan remain in flux, subject to changes based on a review by President Joe Biden and the White House staff.

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Originally published on June 15, 2021, by Esther Fung for the Wall Street Journal.

During the worst of the pandemic, many landlords offered deals where ailing retailers paid a percentage of their monthly sales in rent—rather than a fixed amount—to help them survive. Now, this once temporary way of charging tenants looks poised to outlast Covid-19.

More shopping-center owners are signing new leases where rent is tied directly to a portion of sales, at least for a period. These percentage-rent leases are especially attractive to newer retailers, offering some flexibility so that they aren’t saddled with large losses as they are starting out.

While most landlords tend to prefer the reliability of a fixed monthly rent payment, the wider use of percentage leases reflects how much retail has become a renters’ market.

Originally published on June 15, 2021, by Katie Sloan for Rebusiness Online.

When it comes to mall redevelopment, one of the biggest hurdles is changing the business community’s perception that enclosed malls are only for retail use, says Sean Garrett, president of acquisitions and director of community relations for East Peoria, Illinois-based Cullinan Properties Ltd. 

“There is no reason an insurance office can’t be right next to a retailer and a neighbor of a dentist,” states Garrett. “Downtowns and Main Streets have been developed this way for generations.” 

Cullinan recently followed this approach when it rebranded its Quincy Mall in Quincy, Illinois, to Quincy Town Center. One of the anchor tenants is now Quincy Medical Group, which backfilled a former Bergner’s department store. For Garrett, merging retail and medical uses today is a “natural fit.”

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Breakfast with Principals
June 29 & 30 | 8:00am – 9:00am ET 

A few spots are still available to attend next week’s Breakfast with Principals. This event provides an opportunity to meet with fellow members, make connections, and discuss what is going on with NAIOP and Charlotte’s commercial real estate industry while enjoying breakfast from two of Charlotte’s local hot spots Community Matters Café and Nick’s Cafe.

Table hosts are Pete Kidwell, Beacon Partners, Pat Pierce, Selwyn Property Group, Sagar Rathie, Crescent Communities, and Chris Thomas, Childress Klein.

Space is limited to 6 people per table, with a maximum of 2 tables per location. This is a NAIOP member-only event.

There is no charge to sign up for this event. Breakfast will be on own – make sure to come hungry and help support local businesses! 

Register for Nick's Cafe on June 29

Register for Community Matters Cafe on June 30

Questions

If you have questions, please contact the NAIOP Charlotte office at [email protected].